2022 Economic Update: Pandemic, Inflation, & Recession

Now that we are in our 2nd COVID-19 Winter, the world is currently experiencing the rampant dissemination of the Omicron variant mixed with the Delta variant and just plain old killer Coronavirus. Health experts are now saying this virus will never go away and new variants will come and go in the upcoming years. This of course isn’t the case in China, where there is a zero tolerance for even a single case. If you are found positive there, you are literally locked into your home and monitored by government personnel. It’s very scary for the residents, but alas, it’s not the U.S. situation, because we have our own predicament to deal with locally.

When this originally started in the late Winter of 2020, it had a major impact on the oil, hotel, airline and travel/entertainment industries. Today, and shockingly I might add, it is having a much smaller impact. In some cases, the market participants (stock symbols) are at pre-pandemic share prices. Although there is no modeling that can predict how the economy will respond to the ongoing “Pandemic” …suffice it to say there is a major consensus (among analysts) that we will eventually hit a deep economic correction and recession late this year. Even the most optimistic economic scenarios aren’t very promising, and with many people still unvaccinated, some clinical experts say this could be the deadliest phase of the pandemic yet. Although Omicron is less deadly (for the vaccinated) and there are fewer educational and business closures this time, the economy is possibly headed for something bad.

As I mentioned in my previous writing regarding the “Supply-Chain Debacle”, it will persist at least until the 4th quarter of this year. You may find most of what you are looking for on store shelves now, but you are probably going to pay a minimum of 10 percent more for it (compared to last year). The cargo ships are still sitting offshore for a “slip” to dock into, and the bulk freight is still sitting on docks for at least a couple weeks before a train, truck or flight can deliver the supplies to you locally. These field workers [of transportation industries] are yet another group that is experiencing a surge in positive cases, infections, and the inability to go to work.
Another virus-related impact we are aware of; is that dining out (restaurant food) is becoming less…